Wildfires are becoming longer, stronger, and more destructive. A study co-authored by SPARCCLE researchers shows that addressing social and economic vulnerability across countries will be a key factor in mitigating the scale of resulting financial damage, and emphasises sustainable development as essential to reducing climate-related impacts.

The study, published in Environmental Research: Climate, examined wildfire data from 165 countries around the world to uncover why some countries experience much higher financial losses from wildfires than others. While climate factors such as heat and drought continue to increase wildfire risks, the researchers found that social and economic conditions are just as important in shaping the extent of wildfire-related economic losses.

“Most wildfire studies focus on burned areas and consistently identify climate as the main driver. Based on this, we initially expected climate to also be behind most of the wildfire costs. Hence, our finding that socioeconomic conditions also play a crucial role is very interesting. It suggests that we are not powerless in the face of increasing wildfire risks, and that robust adaptation strategies and sustainable development measures play a decisive role in mitigating the economic damages of wildfires,” notes co-author Edward Byers, SPARCCLE Project Coordinator.

Using future projections under different climate change and developmental pathways, the team found that by 2070, economic damages from wildfires could be three times higher under a high‑emission scenario than under a pathway focused on sustainable development. The benefits of a more sustainable trajectory are particularly pronounced in the Global South, where avoided wildfire losses could exceed 2% of GDP – more than ten times the benefit seen in high‑income countries.

Ultimately, the study highlights one important message: reducing the economic toll of wildfires requires both serious climate action and strong, inclusive development.

Adapted from a press release by IIASA. Read the original article here.  

For more information:

Hwong, Y.-L., Byers, E., Werning, M., & Quilcaille, Y. (2025). Sustainable development key to limiting climate change-driven wildfire damages. Environmental Research: Climate, 4(3). https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/adec11